If Sam Darnold joins the Raiders with a large contract and franchise expectations in 2025, his performance will regress.
First call: Dec 27, 2024, 10:58 AM ET · Deadline: Jan 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET · Historical archive
“he will go back to being sam darnold.”OPEN THE ORIGINAL POST ↗
What we’re scoring
Preserve the named-team condition separately from the incorrect destination projection. Undefined regression does not override a demonstrably unmet premise.
The ruling
Darnold joined Seattle, so the specifically forecast Raiders setting never occurred.
View resolution evidence ↗Timeline & revisions
- Dec 27, 2024, 10:58 AM ET · originalIf Sam Darnold joins the Raiders with a large contract and franchise expectations in 2025, his performance will regress.Source post ↗
Public review history (3)
- Sep 24, 2026, 5:29 PM ET · approve
Preserve the named-team condition separately from the incorrect destination projection. Undefined regression does not override a demonstrably unmet premise.
- Sep 24, 2026, 5:29 PM ET · verdict
Darnold joined Seattle, so the specifically forecast Raiders setting never occurred.
- Sep 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ET · review-note
Preserve the named-team condition separately from the incorrect destination projection. Undefined regression does not override a demonstrably unmet premise. Jev advisory and original-source context manually reviewed; source-specific review decisions retained in the batch audit.
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