00 / What these results cover
All 9,255 captured posts have been reviewed, from September 24, 2026 back to July 26, 2023. The archive contains 998 unique calls. Future outcomes remain pending; unclear claims and evidence gaps stay unscored. These results cover the reviewed available archive, not a lifetime record.
01 / What gets on the board
Pre-event, falsifiable NFL statements with a clear subject, outcome, and deadline. All NFL teams, game picks, measurable statistics, season outcomes, and transactions are eligible. We exclude preferences, insults, retrospective boasts, unmeasurable claims, other people’s quoted words, and unclear jokes or conditions. Each independent claim in a post can be reviewed separately. An explicitly stated winner, score or margin, and winning-play forecast are distinct propositions; repeated or revised versions of each stay attached to its first call. In-game statements cannot qualify as predictions of that already-started game; a statement made after an injury may qualify only when it forecasts objectively verifiable future playing availability.
02 / How a call becomes a receipt
Collection uses stable forum post IDs, original timestamps, and quote-free author text. A conservative candidate classifier proposes sentences; a reviewer verifies their meaning and event window. No claim is automatically approved at launch. Manual URL and text imports follow the same review rules. Raw captures and review history remain immutable. A changed interpretation has a visible explanation.
03 / First call locked
The first unambiguous pre-event call for a unique event and proposition is the scored position. Repetitions add source links, not new wins or losses. Later reversals stay visible without erasing the first call. Discovery of an earlier source sends the record back to a ruling.
04 / Five verdicts, no convenient erasers
Pending, correct, incorrect, void, or needs ruling. Reliable primary results are preferred, with a source link and written explanation. Canceled, insufficiently specific, or otherwise void calls remain visible. Pending, void, and disputed calls are excluded from resolved accuracy. Every correct call is counted using the same rules as every miss.
05 / Reading the numbers
Joe’s accuracy is correct calls divided by correct plus incorrect calls. Opposite-outcome accuracy uses only reviewed clean binary claims. The Fade Index measures the hypothetical even-money return across resolved calls. Counts accompany percentages. A featured call has no special weight.
06 / The Fade Index percentage benchmark
The headline Fade Index is an explicitly hypothetical even-money benchmark across every unique approved, resolved prediction. Each resolved call has equal weight: Joe incorrect is a winning fade; Joe correct is a losing fade. Return = (winning fades − losing fades) ÷ resolved fades, expressed as a percentage. For example, six wins and four losses yield +20%. This equals net profit divided by total stakes for any equal stake amount; the chosen dollar amount does not affect the percentage. Repeats and reversals do not add stakes; the original clear call remains locked. Different explicitly approved propositions count separately, including those for which no tradable contract exists. Pending, void, and needs-ruling calls are excluded. This is a scoring benchmark without fees, not a reconstruction of available betting odds. It does not show a funded bankroll or compounded return. Month/year use original post dates during archive seeding. After seeding, subsequent rulings use their grading dates while seeded results keep their original post dates. Calendar periods use New York time. The chart uses event dates, or the ruling date for a final outcome established early. Filters apply. The streak follows original post dates during archive seeding. Once seeding is complete, subsequent grades use their grading dates while seeded results retain their original chronology.
07 / Collection & corrections
The scheduler runs hourly to check whether collection is due: at least daily when access permits, with shorter configurable intervals on NFL game days. Collection is bounded, cached, deduplicated, checkpointed, and stops on bot challenges. A recent window is revisited for edits and shifting pagination. Failed jobs appear at the review desk. Submit a correction from a prediction page; abuse controls protect that queue. No reply address is required.
08 / Public audit sample
- Kirk Cousins will not join the Jets during the 2023 season. - correct. Cousins remained with Minnesota; the Vikings placed him on injured reserve on October 31. He did not join the Jets that season.
- Carl Lawson will not remain a Jet for the 2024 season. - correct. The captured quote explicitly says Lawson will not be a Jet in 2024, and the author agrees. Dallas announced his completed signing on August 19, 2024 after his Jets contract ended. This next-season destination differs from the existing no-trade-during-2023 prediction.
- Joe Tippmann will play center in Jets training camp in 2024. - correct. The Jets? July 28 training-camp report identifies Tippmann as their second-year center.
- Dalvin Cook will play against Denver on October 8, 2023. - correct. Cook carried six times for 23 yards against Denver.
- Cincinnati will not trade Tee Higgins during the 2023 season. - correct. Higgins remained with Cincinnati, including after the trade deadline and through the end of its 2023 season.
- Robert Saleh will not take the open Michigan State head-coaching position for 2024. - correct. The 2024 Jets media guide lists Saleh as their head coach. Michigan State officially appointed Jonathan Smith on November 25,2023; school announcement is recorded as supplementary primary evidence.
- Davante Adams will join the Jets during the 2023 season. - incorrect. Adams remained a Raider through 2023. The Jets acquired him on October 15, 2024, a season after this forecast.
- The Jets will enter their 2023 bye week at 1-5. - incorrect. The Jets beat Philadelphia 20-14 and entered the bye at 3-3.
- The Jets will bring in Carson Wentz on September 26, 2023. - incorrect. The Jets announced Trevor Siemian as their quarterback signing on September 26. Wentz did not join the team.
- The Jets will not win another game in 2023 unless they make a drastic change at quarterback. - incorrect. The Jets beat Denver 31-21 on October 8 with Zach Wilson still playing quarterback, before his eventual November benching. No change of starting quarterback preceded that counterexample.
- The Jets will lose at Denver on October 8, 2023. - incorrect. The Jets won 31-21 at Denver.
- Denver will beat the Jets by 14 points on October 8, 2023. - incorrect. The Jets won 31-21; Denver did not win by 14.
09 / Independence & privacy
This is an unofficial satirical fan project, not an endorsement or affiliation. Humor concerns football predictions, never personal life. The captain portrait is a visual joke, not a verified image of the forum member. Referral placement remains disabled unless a valid program and disclosure are confirmed. No affiliate arrangement can change source data, prices, or outcomes.